Modeling of Car Insurance Premiums Using the Bayes Method with Poisson and Exponential Distributions

Abstract

Car insurance is included in the general insurance category. Determination of general insurance premiums can be done through various approaches, one of which is the Bayes method used in this study. The Poisson distribution is chosen to model the frequency of claims, while the Exponential distribution is used to model the amount of claims. Insurance premiums are calculated by multiplying the expected frequency of claims by the expected amount of claims. Based on the results of the analysis of car insurance data using the Bayes method, it was found that the highest premium rates were for Mercedes brand vehicles, while the lowest rates were for Saab brand vehicles. The results of this calculation can be used by insurance companies as a reference in managing car insurance reserve funds.